Digital ad spends least impacted in 2020
Thoughts on the GroupM's TYNY 2021 report
Environment to the economy - everything is virtual; at least the marketers are asking us to believe it. It is the age-old debate when digital came everyone proclaimed TV is dead.
Nothing dies, things simply evolve. Anyway, marketers’ job is to predict.
I am not debating that the interest in digital has quadrupled. However, it was a forced choice. Will it be the same in the coming years when we will accept lockdowns and pandemics as a part and parcel of our life. Even de-monetization was a forced-choice but cash still rules in our day-to-day life.
Saving my political thoughts for the “Weekend Musings”, digital is the biggest proponent toward consumers interacting with brands.
The above snapshot is from the lately released ‘2030 Revisited’ report; experts evaluated the impact of 2020 on advertising once again and what it means for the industry in 2030. Yes, you have read it correctly the report is titled “Advertising in 2030.”
In ‘2030 Revisited’, more than 50 CMOs and brand-side marketers, agencies, networks, platforms, and adtech executives and marketing academics revisit the predictions for the next decade in the wake of the upheaval of 2020, said Essense - a global data and measurement-driven media agency which is part of GroupM and the creator of the report.
The report states that - “After months of video meetings, virtual family holidays, and online schooling, it came as no surprise that 59% of panelists believe it is now more likely that we’ll spend a majority of our time in virtual environments by 2030.” Of those ranking the scenario less likely, at least one panelist felt there would be a backlash by 2030 after the current push into virtual.
Biometric data is another trend that saw the greatest acceleration. According to the panelists, the use of biometric data to access, personalize, and/or secure data and services has seen the highest acceptance.
Hence it comes with no surprise when digital ad spends have witnessed the least impact in 2020. In a year when every other traditional advertising medium has witnessed a major impact lead by Print.
The above snapshot is part of the report ‘This Year, Next Year’ (TYNY) 2021 - released by GroupM India. According to the report, India will see a major ad recovery in 2021 given the downfall of ad spends in 2020 due to the pandemic.
Non-(TV & Digital) share of overall India ad spend in 2021 to be at 20%. Digital share of overall India ad spends in 2021 at 35%.
With FMCG and e-commerce laying the foundation, Auto, Telecom, Retail, Durables to be growth drivers of India ad spend in 2021.
The predictions harmonize with the recently released and comprehensive report by DAN - Indian Digital Advertising in 2021. Digital was the least impacted - “With Indian’s locked up into their homes - digital proliferated and so the impact wasn’t that severe.”
According to the report: “The digital advertising industry has seen a growth at Rs. 15,782 crore by the end of 2020, which was at Rs. 13,683 crore by the end of 2019.” Again the growth will happen but to reach the standards of 2018 will take a couple of years.
The TYNY 2021 report forecasts India’s advertising investment to reach an estimated Rs. 80,123 crores this year. This represents an estimated growth of 23.2%, for the calendar year 2021. India also happens to be the second-fastest-growing market in the top ten countries and will be the sixth-largest contributor to incremental ad spends in 2021 globally.
The recovery of the Indian advertising market won’t happen soon. Last year the TYNY report had predicted before the pandemic had hit us that the industry is in a recovery mode.
Digital ad spend is growing and it is encouraging but it got a hit in the 2019f vs 2018 and the 2020f vs 2019 is in a recovery mode. Not just digital, TV has also been hit badly and it is slowly recovering.
Last year the reasons for growth were the slow economy, NTO, low consumer demand, and a slowdown in sectors.
What is your guess for slow growth or let just say negative growth in 2020?
I know you are smart.
P.S. Next year GroupM should spend money on designing a better report. This is just a shabby piece of work from the world’s leading media investment company.